Blue Jays vs. Yankees – Preview
Tuesday, 8:08pm ET • Yankee Stadium
Our Pick: Yankees Moneyline

The ALDS shifts to the Bronx tonight as New York hosts Toronto in Game 3 at 8:08 p.m. ET. The Yankees trail 2–0, but they return to Yankee Stadium with real edges where it matters for a moneyline play. New York went 50–31 at home during the regular season, while Toronto was 40–41 on the road—a meaningful split when stakes and environments tighten. 

On the mound, lefty Carlos Rodón gets the ball for New York opposite Toronto’s Shane Bieber. Rodón’s full-season line (18–9, 3.09 ERA, 203 K, 1.05 WHIP) speaks to his steadiness and swing-and-miss profile, exactly what you want with elimination on the line. He also held the Jays to a 3.60 ERA across two starts this year, and he’s coming off 6 quality innings (3 ER, 6 K) in the Wild Card round. 

The Yankees’ path is still built on thunder. They led MLB in both home runs (274) and runs scored (849) this season, firepower that tends to travel—but plays especially well at home with last at-bats. Aaron Judge’s 53 homers and .331 average headline an order that punishes mistakes; a single swing can flip this game and reset the series narrative. 

Yes, Toronto’s bats were torrid at Rogers Centre, outscoring New York 23–8 to grab a 2–0 series lead. But that surge came in their park; Game 3 brings different sightlines, bullpens, and matchups tailored for the Yankees’ usage at home. With Rodón’s strikeout ability front-running and New York’s right-handed power stacked behind Judge, the matchup tilts back toward the hosts in a more neutral (and familiar) setting. 

Pick lean: Yankees moneyline, riding Rodón’s stability and the league’s most powerful offense in its own park.