Dodgers vs. Phillies – Preview
Saturday, 6:38pm ET • Citizens Bank Park
Our Pick: Dodgers -1.5

NLDS Game 1 shifts to Citizens Bank Park tonight (6:38 p.m. ET, TBS), with Shohei Ohtani starting for the Dodgers against Phillies lefty Cristopher Sánchez.  Los Angeles finished 93–69 while Philadelphia went 96–66 and an MLB-best 55–26 at home, underscoring how valuable an early cushion will be for the road club. 

Why Dodgers -1.5? Start with Ohtani’s form. The two-way ace closed the regular season with 16⅔ consecutive scoreless innings and, in mid-September, held these Phillies hitless over five frames before handing it off to the bullpen. He enters with a 2.87 ERA (1–1) as a starting pitcher this year.  The matchup also removes Zack Wheeler from the equation (out for the postseason following thoracic outlet surgery), pushing Sánchez into the Game 1 role despite the moment. 

The run-line case is about separation. Over 162, the Dodgers outscored opponents with a more explosive attack: 825 runs and 244 homers versus 778 and 212 for Philadelphia. More runs equals more paths to a multi-run win, especially if L.A. gets into the middle innings with a lead.  The top of the order has carried that thump all year—Ohtani (55 HR, 102 RBI) and Freddie Freeman (.295 AVG) headline an offense built to bunch extra-base hits. 

Momentum matters, too. L.A. rides a five-game win streak into tonight, which includes a two-game Wild Card sweep earlier this week; they scored 23 runs across the last three contests, a sign the bats are arriving hot. 

None of this diminishes Sánchez’s breakout—13–5, 2.50 ERA with 212 strikeouts over 202 IP—but the task is steep without Wheeler’s length behind him and against a lineup that punishes mistakes. If Ohtani’s command holds and he turns it over cleanly, the Dodgers’ run creation profile gives them the better chance to stretch a one-run edge into two. 

Bottom line: with Ohtani’s current groove, the Dodgers’ season-long power advantage, and recent scoring surge, Los Angeles is best positioned to cover the -1.5 run line—provided they cash early chances and keep Philadelphia’s raucous home crowd out of the seventh-inning fireworks.