MST Game Picks & Analysis
NFL
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Jets vs. Dolphins – Preview
Monday, 7:15pm ET • Hard Rock Stadium
Our Pick: Dolphins -2.5
Here’s why Miami can cover the short number (-2.5) on Monday night.
The setup: both teams enter 0–3 and desperate, with Miami a consensus 2.5-point home favorite for the 7:15 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami also owns the historical edges that matter in a tight spread: the Dolphins are 34-25-1 all-time at home vs. the Jets, New York has dropped nine straight in Miami, and Tua Tagovailoa is 6-0 as a starter against the Jets.
Sustained drives tilt toward Miami. Through three weeks, the Dolphins have converted 19 of 35 third downs (54.3%), the best mark in the NFL — a crucial lever for covering small spreads. The Jets, by contrast, are 3-for-22 on third down over their last two games, a drive-killer that puts stress on their defense. Turnovers have hurt both sides (NYJ –4, MIA –5), but Miami’s ability to extend possessions mitigates that volatility, especially at home.
Matchup and availability also favor the Dolphins’ passing game. New York’s top edge rusher Jermaine Johnson (ankle) is OUT, as is CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (ankle). QB Justin Fields has cleared protocol and will start, but RB/KR Kene Nwangwu (hamstring) is doubtful — trimming field-position juice for the Jets. On Miami’s side, CBs Storm Duck (ankle) and Jason Marshall Jr. (hamstring) are OUT, but WR Jaylen Waddle finished the week as a full participant, keeping Miami’s 1-2 punch intact with Tyreek Hill. If the Jets can’t generate pressure without Johnson, Tua’s quick-game rhythm — historically effective vs. this opponent — becomes difficult to disrupt.
Situationally, Miami’s home trend and quarterback history against New York are hard to ignore in a “must-win” environment. The AP/ESPN preview also notes the Jets have no takeaways through three games — another sign Miami should see clean possessions if it avoids self-inflicted errors.
Bottom line: With elite third-down offense, a banged-up Jets pass rush, and a quarterback who hasn’t lost to New York, Miami has the more reliable paths to a one-score win. Lay the short number: Dolphins by a field goal.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Bengals vs. Broncos – Preview
Monday, 8:15pm ET • Empower Field at Mile High
Our Pick: Broncos -7.5
Context matters. Cincinnati is reeling after a 48–10 thumping at Minnesota on Sept. 21 — a 38-point margin that local reports and league coverage note as the most lopsided loss in Bengals franchise history. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is sidelined following toe surgery and is expected to miss at least three months, so Jake Browning starts again tonight.
Why Denver to cover -7.5: the mismatch in the trenches and turnover math. Through three games, the Bengals’ offense is sputtering at 19.3 points per game with a -4 turnover differential, and protection has wobbled (10 sacks allowed, 55 yards lost). The run game hasn’t bailed them out either (2.4 yards per rush; 49.0 rushing yards per game). Defensively, Cincinnati has been leaky: 30.3 points allowed per game and a 46.34% third-down rate allowed. That profile invites negative game scripts on the road. (All 2025 team figures per ESPN’s Bengals team stats page.)
Denver has the right tools to exploit it. The Broncos’ pass rush has been lively with 12 sacks through three games while their own protection has yielded just 3 sacks — a stark contrast with Cincinnati’s front. On offense, Sean Payton’s group can lean on the ground game (5.2 yards per rush; 129.0 rush YPG) to stay on schedule and protect a lead, and they’ve been serviceable scoring at 22.7 PPG. Those edges — pressure on Browning plus downhill efficiency — are exactly how seven- to ten-point wins materialize at altitude. (Team figures per ESPN’s Broncos team stats; sack and player leaders corroborated on the Broncos’ official stats page.)
Bottom line: with Cincinnati traveling on a short reset after a historic defeat and starting a backup QB behind a line that’s allowed pressure, Denver’s pass rush/run-game combo puts the Broncos in the best position to cover -7.5 at home.
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