Pirates vs. Reds – Preview
Thursday, 12:40pm ET • Great American Ball Park
Our Pick: Reds Moneyline

The Reds and Pirates wrap their series this afternoon at Great American Ball Park (first pitch 12:40 p.m. ET), with Cincinnati turning to lefty Nick Lodolo opposite Pittsburgh rookie Braxton Ashcraft. 

Why Cincinnati is best positioned on the moneyline:

First, the matchup on the mound favors the home side. Lodolo has delivered a steady 2025: 27 appearances, 149.1 IP, 144 K, 1.08 WHIP and a 3.44 ERA—exactly the kind of profile that limits free baserunners in a homer-friendly park and short day-game slates.  Pittsburgh’s Ashcraft has been excellent in run prevention (2.62 ERA), but he’s worked a hybrid role and hasn’t consistently provided length (25 games, 7 starts, 65.1 IP), a usage pattern that can expose the bullpen earlier than a typical starter’s day.  Moreover, multiple outlets note the Pirates have used Ashcraft as an opener at times this season, further hinting at a shorter leash. 

Second, the context tilts to Cincinnati. The Reds have been a solid home club (44–36), while the Pirates have struggled away from PNC Park (25–52). That home/road split, combined with a familiar division opponent, is a classic moneyline edge, especially with the season series dead even (6–6) entering today. 

Third, bullpen dynamics lean Reds today. The Pirates’ staff has been taxed the past two games in Cincinnati: on Tuesday, five relievers covered 4⅓ scoreless frames, and Wednesday’s game stretched to 11 innings before Pittsburgh prevailed. Even with an off-day bullpen can bounce back, stacking heavy workloads on consecutive days increases the chance that Cincinnati’s deeper plate appearances against middle relief can flip leverage late.  If Ashcraft again works a shorter outing, that burden likely shifts earlier into this getaway-day matinee. 

Finally, the Reds have shown resilience at home—they have not been swept in a home series all year—and they still have postseason urgency (80–78 entering today). That mix of venue advantage, series rubber-game motivation, and a frontline lefty they trust makes Cincinnati the more dependable side. 

Projected edge: Lodolo’s command and swing-and-miss stuff set the tone, Cincinnati’s top of the order grinds Ashcraft’s pitch count, and the Reds capitalize late against a busier Pirates bullpen.

Lean: Reds moneyline.