Pacers vs. Thunder – NBA Finals Game 4

Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET • Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Our Pick: Pacers +6

As Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals approaches tonight at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Indiana Pacers find themselves in an enviable position, holding a 2-1 series advantage over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Despite being six-point underdogs, several key factors make the Pacers a strong candidate to cover the spread and possibly even take a commanding series lead.

Indiana’s impressive home-court advantage has been a defining factor this postseason, posting a remarkable 7-2 record at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The home crowd has provided a palpable energy boost, helping the Pacers execute effectively down the stretch. Game 3 illustrated this clearly, as Indiana overcame a fourth-quarter deficit, outscoring the Thunder 32-18 in the final period to secure a crucial 116-107 victory.

The Pacers’ balanced scoring attack remains their strongest asset. Pascal Siakam leads the team with an average of 20.6 points per game, while Tyrese Haliburton, who has averaged 18.6 points and 9.4 assists per contest, continues to orchestrate Indiana’s offense with poise and precision. Haliburton’s ability to control the tempo and distribute efficiently has mitigated Oklahoma City’s defensive intensity.

A critical element contributing to Indiana’s momentum is their exceptional bench production. Bennedict Mathurin highlighted this advantage by scoring 27 points off the bench in Game 3, part of a dominating 49-18 edge over Oklahoma City’s reserves. The Thunder, reliant heavily on their starting core, have struggled to match this depth, creating late-game fatigue and defensive lapses.

On the defensive front, Indiana will continue to pressure Chet Holmgren, who visibly struggled late in Game 3 due to fatigue and physicality. Holmgren, whose postseason rebounding consistency has declined on the road, poses a significant vulnerability for the Thunder, especially against Indiana’s physical interior presence led by Myles Turner.

While Oklahoma City’s star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and forward Jalen Williams will undoubtedly pose scoring threats, the Pacers’ defensive scheme and deep bench rotation provide the necessary tools to disrupt their rhythm.

Ultimately, Indiana’s home-court edge, deeper rotation, and late-game execution are well-positioned to challenge the six-point spread favoring Oklahoma City, making the Pacers a solid choice to cover and perhaps inch closer to championship glory.