Pacers vs. Thunder – NBA Finals Game 3

Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET • Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Our Pick: Pacers +5.5

The 2025 NBA Finals shifts to Indianapolis tonight as the Indiana Pacers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a critical Game 3, with the series evenly matched at 1-1. Despite Oklahoma City entering as a 5.5-point favorite, Indiana is well-positioned to cover the spread or even seize a pivotal victory outright.

Indiana’s postseason performance, particularly at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, strongly supports their chances. This playoff run, the Pacers have been exceptionally resilient, posting a 12-6 record against the spread (ATS), including an impressive 6-2 ATS at home. They have consistently shown an ability to bounce back after losses, driven by adjustments made by Coach Rick Carlisle and the stellar playmaking abilities of guard Tyrese Haliburton.

Haliburton’s Game 2 performance was limited, scoring just 17 points, as the Thunder’s aggressive defensive schemes effectively disrupted his rhythm. However, his capability to quickly recalibrate—especially at home—is a critical factor. Haliburton’s proven ability to elevate his performance under pressure will likely play a key role in stabilizing Indiana’s offense early tonight.

Another decisive factor favoring the Pacers is their bench production. Andrew Nembhard has emerged as a reliable contributor, averaging 12.8 points, 5.1 assists, and 1.6 steals per game during this playoff run. His aggressive defense and playmaking in the second unit have provided much-needed momentum swings, particularly when Haliburton sits. Additionally, Bennedict Mathurin’s explosive scoring capability adds another layer to the Pacers’ bench depth, crucial against Oklahoma City’s high-performing reserves.

Defensively, Indiana must limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact. While he has averaged 36 points per game in the Finals thus far, Indiana’s strategy of intensified perimeter pressure combined with the rim protection of Myles Turner could disrupt his efficiency. Turner’s defensive presence inside will also be essential in limiting Oklahoma City’s frequent trips to the free-throw line—a significant factor in their Game 2 win.

Given Indiana’s resilience, home-court advantage, and anticipated strategic adjustments, they are primed to cover the +5.5 spread, making tonight’s Game 3 a compelling contest.