Pacers vs. Thunder – NBA Finals Game 1

Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Our Pick: Thunder -9.5

The 2025 NBA Finals tip-off tonight at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, as the hometown Thunder take on the underdog Indiana Pacers. Oklahoma City enters Game 1 heavily favored, listed at -9.5 points, and numerous factors underscore why they’re primed to cover that spread convincingly.

The Thunder have been exceptional on their home floor throughout the postseason, boasting an impressive 8-1 record. Notably, their victories haven’t merely been wins—they’ve dominated opponents with large margins, including decisive 30-plus point blowouts. Such commanding performances suggest they’re not just winning at home; they’re overwhelming teams.

Central to the Thunder’s postseason surge is league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose scoring prowess has been nearly unstoppable. Averaging 29.8 points per game in these playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander’s efficiency (shooting 51.9%) and versatility have posed matchup nightmares. His ability to score from anywhere on the court and distribute effectively (6.9 assists per game) creates endless defensive dilemmas for the Pacers.

Complementing Gilgeous-Alexander is Oklahoma City’s formidable defensive presence, anchored by Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who excel in rim protection and rebounding. The Thunder’s defense has consistently stifled opponents, limiting them to an average of just 107.3 points per game this postseason, a league-best mark. Indiana’s offense, dependent on ball movement and perimeter shooting, will face substantial hurdles against OKC’s aggressive and switch-heavy defense.

Meanwhile, the Pacers, despite their impressive playoff run as the East’s fourth seed, face significant challenges on the road against elite defensive units. While Tyrese Haliburton has excelled in orchestrating the Pacers’ offense, averaging 9.8 assists per game, their dependency on the three-pointer could be problematic against a Thunder team that excels at contesting perimeter shots.

Ultimately, Oklahoma City’s combination of home-court dominance, offensive firepower led by Gilgeous-Alexander, and their suffocating defensive style strongly favors them to not only secure a victory but also comfortably cover the 9.5-point spread tonight.