Timberwolves vs. Thunder – Game 5 Preview
Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Our Pick: Thunder -8.5

As Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Western Conference Finals tips off tonight at the Paycom Center, the Oklahoma City Thunder have their eyes set on clinching a spot in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012. After narrowly defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4, the Thunder hold a commanding 3-1 series lead, entering tonight’s pivotal game as strong 8.5-point favorites.

Oklahoma City’s confidence stems from their impressive home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Their consistent performances at Paycom Center have resulted in a remarkable 33-14-2 record against the spread this season, demonstrating their capability to not only win but win decisively on their home floor. This strength has been particularly evident in this series, where the Timberwolves struggled significantly in Games 1 and 2, losing by margins of 26 and 15 points, respectively.

In Game 4, the Thunder showcased their formidable offensive arsenal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who recently earned league MVP honors, delivered a stellar 40-point performance, adding 9 rebounds and 10 assists. His efficiency and playmaking have posed persistent challenges for Minnesota’s defense. Additionally, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren contributed significantly, combining for 55 points, underscoring the depth and versatility of Oklahoma City’s offense.

Conversely, the Timberwolves face significant challenges heading into tonight’s game. Their struggles with ball security were glaringly evident in their Game 4 loss, turning the ball over 21 times despite their solid shooting percentages (51.2% from the field and 43.9% from three-point range). These turnovers consistently allowed the Thunder easy transition opportunities, ultimately costing Minnesota critical possessions in a tightly contested matchup.

Moreover, Minnesota’s star duo of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle experienced a dramatic dip in performance, combining for a mere 21 points. Their inability to produce under playoff pressure is a crucial concern for the Timberwolves as they fight to extend their postseason run.

Given Oklahoma City’s dominant home record, their offensive efficiency led by Gilgeous-Alexander, and Minnesota’s vulnerabilities with turnovers and inconsistent star performances, the Thunder are well-positioned to cover the -8.5 spread tonight and punch their ticket to the NBA Finals.