NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Celtics vs. Knicks – Game 5 Preview
Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET • Rocket Arena, Cleveland
Our Pick: Cavaliers -8.5
Facing elimination, the Cleveland Cavaliers return home to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse for a must-win Game 5 tonight against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Trailing 3-1 in the series, the Cavs are desperate to reverse their fortunes and avoid playoff disappointment. Despite the challenging scenario, Cleveland is favored by 8.5 points—a line reflecting their impressive regular-season home record and the urgency of the situation.
The primary storyline for the Cavaliers heading into tonight is the availability of star guard Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell, who is averaging a robust 34.0 points per game in this series, suffered a sprained left ankle in Game 4, which severely hampered Cleveland’s offensive production. Early reports from today’s shootaround indicate optimism about his participation, with Mitchell listed as a game-time decision. If he plays, Mitchell’s presence will significantly bolster Cleveland’s offensive attack, particularly by opening up the floor for Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, who have been consistent but unable to fully compensate for Mitchell’s absence.
Defensively, Cleveland faces perhaps its greatest test of the postseason. Indiana’s balanced offense, featuring the dynamic scoring duo of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner, has consistently exposed defensive lapses, especially in transition and perimeter defense. To keep their playoff hopes alive, the Cavaliers must prioritize defensive discipline, limiting Indiana’s scoring runs that have defined their losses. Cleveland’s frontcourt, led by Evan Mobley, will need to assert dominance in the paint, limiting second-chance opportunities and controlling rebounds—areas where the Pacers have thrived this series.
On the other side, Indiana has showcased an uncanny ability to win in hostile environments, taking both games earlier in the series in Cleveland. However, facing elimination at home often sparks a heightened level of performance and urgency, precisely the scenario in which Cleveland thrives. Historically, teams in similar positions elevate their intensity, particularly on defense and hustle plays, characteristics essential for a Cavaliers victory tonight.
Cleveland’s path to covering the -8.5 spread is clear: leverage home-court advantage, tighten defensive execution, and get Mitchell back on the court. If these elements align, expect the Cavaliers to extend the series and make a compelling statement that they are far from finished in these playoffs.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Nuggets vs. Thunder – Game 5 Preview
Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Our Pick: Thunder -10
Heading into tonight’s pivotal Game 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets find themselves locked in a tense 2-2 tie in the Western Conference Semifinals. With home-court advantage, the Thunder enter the matchup favored by a substantial 10-point spread. Despite the spread seeming steep at first glance, several key factors underscore why Oklahoma City is well-positioned not only to win but also to cover comfortably.
Throughout this series, Oklahoma City’s defense has proven exceptionally effective at containing Denver’s explosive offense. Game 4 was a prime example, as the Thunder suffocated the Nuggets, holding them to just 87 points on an abysmal 31% shooting from the field. This defensive mastery isn’t a one-off occurrence; Oklahoma City has consistently applied pressure to Denver’s perimeter shooters, forcing rushed shots and uncomfortable possessions. If they replicate this intensity tonight, Denver’s offensive struggles are likely to persist.
Offensively, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has solidified himself as a reliable playoff performer. He’s averaging 28.0 points and nearly seven assists per game in the postseason, stepping up significantly during critical moments. Gilgeous-Alexander’s clutch scoring was instrumental in Game 4, where he contributed nine crucial fourth-quarter points to seal the victory. Expect him to maintain his assertiveness in Game 5, especially given the stakes.
Beyond their star player, Oklahoma City’s bench has emerged as an X-factor. Rookie guard Cason Wallace and versatile wing Aaron Wiggins have added depth and energy, sparking crucial scoring runs that shifted momentum in critical stretches. Their capacity to step up allows coach Mark Daigneault flexibility in rotations, giving the Thunder a strategic advantage against Denver’s thinner bench.
Furthermore, the Thunder have thrived playing at Paycom Center, winning eight of their last ten home games. Their high-tempo style resonates with the home crowd, elevating team energy and often overwhelming visiting opponents. Given these combined factors—robust defensive schemes, reliable clutch scoring, depth, and significant home-court advantage—Oklahoma City appears primed to not only win Game 5 but also decisively cover the 10-point spread.
