NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Thunder vs. Nuggets – Game 4 Preview
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET • Ball Arena, Denver
Our Pick: Nuggets +7
As the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder face off in Game 4 of their intense Western Conference Semifinals matchup, all eyes will be on how Denver can capitalize on their recent momentum and hold firm as 7-point underdogs. Despite leading the series 2–1, oddsmakers have pegged Denver as underdogs, a status they’ll likely relish as they’ve thrived under pressure throughout the playoffs.
Game 3 highlighted the Nuggets’ resilience, battling to a hard-fought 113–104 overtime victory despite their MVP candidate Nikola Jokić enduring a rare off-night offensively. Jokić struggled significantly, shooting just 8-for-25 from the floor, including an uncharacteristic 0-for-10 from three-point range. But Denver’s depth and grit were on full display as Jamal Murray stepped up spectacularly with 27 points, orchestrating the offense and making key baskets in crunch time. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. were equally pivotal, contributing 22 and 21 points respectively, showcasing Denver’s well-rounded offensive capabilities.
Oklahoma City, while potent, displayed vulnerabilities in Game 3. Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander endured a frustrating night, scoring only 18 points on 7-of-22 shooting, significantly below his playoff average. Denver’s perimeter defenders managed to disrupt his rhythm effectively, a tactic they’ll look to replicate. Furthermore, while Jalen Williams impressed with 32 points, the Thunder’s depth faltered in overtime, where their offense sputtered and only managed a mere two points.
For Denver to cover the +7 spread in Game 4, they’ll likely need a bounce-back shooting performance from Jokić, coupled with sustained contributions from Murray, Gordon, and Porter Jr. On the defensive end, maintaining pressure on Gilgeous-Alexander will be crucial. The Nuggets have demonstrated adaptability throughout the playoffs, consistently responding well after subpar performances from key players.
Additionally, home-court advantage at Ball Arena cannot be understated. Denver finished the regular season with a strong 26–15 home record, proving they’re tough to beat on familiar turf. Given their resilience, home advantage, and balanced scoring attack, Denver is primed not only to stay competitive in Game 4 but to comfortably cover the +7 spread. Expect a determined Nuggets squad ready to seize control and inch closer to the Western Conference Finals.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Cavaliers vs. Pacers – Game 4 Preview
Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET • Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Our Pick: Cavaliers -5.5
After delivering a decisive response in Game 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers look poised to even their Eastern Conference Semifinal series tonight against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Cavaliers enter the matchup as 5.5-point favorites, and recent momentum suggests they have a strong opportunity to win and cover the spread, particularly if they continue executing their strategic adjustments on both ends of the floor.
Game 3 was a defining moment for Cleveland, showcasing not only their offensive firepower but also the tactical flexibility of coach Kenny Atkinson. Implementing a 3-2 zone defense anchored by the versatile Evan Mobley proved instrumental, limiting the Pacers’ ball movement and frustrating their leading playmaker, Tyrese Haliburton, who was held to just four points. Mobley’s defensive versatility and length at the perimeter significantly altered Indiana’s offensive sets, a strategy likely to be emphasized again tonight.
Offensively, the Cavaliers witnessed a resurgent Donovan Mitchell, whose spectacular 43-point, nine-rebound performance highlighted his capability as a playoff closer. Mitchell’s aggressive approach to attacking the basket and drawing fouls was instrumental, as the Pacers struggled to contain him without fouling. Darius Garland’s return further amplified Cleveland’s offensive efficiency. Garland provided crucial spacing and distribution, finishing Game 3 with 20 points and six assists, allowing Mitchell more freedom to exploit defensive mismatches.
Cleveland’s superior offensive metrics continue to bolster their case for tonight’s matchup. Averaging an impressive 121.9 points per game, their high-powered offense ranks first in the league. The Cavaliers’ balanced attack, complemented by role players such as De’Andre Hunter and Jarrett Allen, has posed consistent matchup problems for Indiana, whose defense has allowed 115.1 points per game—an issue magnified by Cleveland’s effective spacing and ball movement.
For Indiana, adjustments are necessary to counter Cleveland’s defensive schemes. The Pacers must find ways to reignite Haliburton’s production and rely on scoring from Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin. However, given Cleveland’s momentum and strategic advantages gained in Game 3, the Pacers face a substantial challenge.
In conclusion, Cleveland’s combination of elite offensive execution, strategic defensive adjustments, and regained roster depth put them firmly in position to cover the 5.5-point spread, potentially turning the tide in this compelling playoff series.
