NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers (50-32, fourth in the East) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (48-34, fifth in the East)
Indianapolis; Tuesday, 6 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Pacers −8
BOTTOM LINE:
Indiana can close out this first-round series at home after a 129–103 rout in Game 4. Myles Turner dominated with 23 points and three blocks, while Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 28 points weren’t enough to spark Milwaukee. Now up 3–1, the Pacers smell a series win.
SERIES ANALYSIS:
This matchup has hinged on pace and perimeter defense. Indiana’s length—led by Turner’s rim protection and Tyrese Haliburton’s 9.2 assists—has disrupted Milwaukee’s half-court sets. The Pacers push the ball aggressively, converting rebounds into quick baskets. In Game 4 they forced 16 Bucks turnovers, turning defense into a 20-point advantage in transition.
Milwaukee’s offense, normally powered by Antetokounmpo’s inside exploits and Damian Lillard’s shooting, has struggled. Lillard’s leg soreness and the Pacers’ disciplined help defense have limited his range. Even when Giannis posted big scoring nights, Indiana’s backcourt—Haliburton and Buddy Hield—has matched Milwaukee on the perimeter.
WHY THE PACERS WILL COVER −8:
Indiana’s offense is humming: they shot 55% in Game 4 and average 119.4 points over their last ten. At home, the Pacers are 26–15 and thrive in playoff intensity. Milwaukee is 5–9 in close games this season, while Indiana is 8–2 when spacing the floor. Expect another balanced attack—Haliburton’s playmaking, Turner’s paint presence and consistent shooting from Hield—to keep the margin wide and secure a series-clinching win that covers the spread.
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
Detroit Pistons (44-38, No. 6) vs. New York Knicks (51-31, No. 3)
New York; Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Out Pick: Knicks −5.5
BOTTOM LINE:
New York can close out this first-round series at Madison Square Garden after a nail-biting 94–93 win in Game 4. Jalen Brunson poured in 32 points, while Cade Cunningham’s 25 for Detroit fell just short. The Knicks now lead 3–1, one victory from advancing.
SERIES ANALYSIS:
This series has been a clash of identities. The Pistons came in young and fearless, pushing pace and attacking the glass. Detroit’s energy earned them a surprise Game 1 win, but New York’s experience and half-court discipline quickly took over. The Knicks tightened their defense, holding Detroit under 95 points twice and forcing contested shots at the rim. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a matchup nightmare—he’s shooting 52 percent and dominating the paint—while Brunson balances creation and scoring.
Detroit still leans heavily on Cunningham’s playmaking. His 9.1 assists showcase his talent, but role players have struggled to knock down shots. Malik Beasley has hit just 37.9 percent from deep over his last ten. Meanwhile, New York’s supporting cast—Towns, OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein—has been efficient, combining for 45 points on 50 percent shooting in Game 4.
WHY THE KNICKS WILL COVER −5.5:
New York controls the series tempo at home (26–12 on the season). Their veteran-laden defense limits opponent scoring to 111.7 points per game, and they rebound better in clutch moments. With Detroit’s secondary scorers struggling under pressure, expect the Knicks to pull away late and cover the spread as they punch their ticket to Round 2.
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic (41-41, No. 7) vs. Boston Celtics (61-21, No. 2)
Boston; Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Celtics −11.5
BOTTOM LINE:
Boston can close out this first-round series in Game 5 after a 107–98 win in Orlando. Jayson Tatum poured in 37 points for Boston, while Paolo Banchero led Orlando with 31. The Celtics now hold a 3–1 advantage and aim to wrap up at home.
SERIES ANALYSIS:
This matchup has highlighted Boston’s two-way dominance and Orlando’s spirited but limited offense. The Celtics have punished the Magic with efficient three-point shooting—hitting 18 of 38 attempts in Game 4—using the threat of Derrick White and Marcus Smart alongside Tatum’s slashing drives. Boston’s defense has been equally stingy, forcing Orlando’s ball-handlers into trouble and limiting the Magic to just 23 assists per contest, well below their season average.
Orlando rose to the occasion behind Banchero’s scoring bursts and Franz Wagner’s midrange touch, keeping Games 1 and 3 competitive. Yet the Magic lack the depth to sustain runs when Boston turns up the intensity. Their bench scoring has dipped, and their defensive rebounding weakness—only 31.3 boards in Game 4—has allowed Boston second-chance opportunities that proved decisive.
WHY THE CELTICS WILL COVER −11.5:
Back in Boston, the Celtics will amplify their pace and precision. They dominate the glass, averaging 33.9 defensive rebounds per game, and have outscored opponents by 11 points at home this season. With Orlando’s half-court sets sputtering under pressure, expect Boston to pull away by late in the third quarter and cruise past the double-digit mark, covering the spread as they seal the series.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Clippers (50–32, No. 5) vs. Denver Nuggets (50–32, No. 4)
Denver; Tuesday, 10 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Nuggets +2
BOTTOM LINE:
With the series knotted at 2–2, Denver eked out a 101–99 win in Game 4 thanks to a 36-point outburst from Nikola Jokić. Now the Nuggets aim to seize home-court advantage before returning to Los Angeles.
SERIES ANALYSIS:
This first-round matchup has hinged on Denver’s ball movement and the Clippers’ lockdown defense. In wins, the Nuggets have shared the ball impeccably—averaging over 31 assists per game—to create open looks for Jokić and role players like Aaron Gordon. Their half-court sets have consistently broken down the Clippers’ traps, turning them into high-percentage shots. Conversely, Los Angeles has leaned on Kawhi Leonard’s slashing drives and James Harden’s pull-up game to climb back from early deficits. The Clippers’ bench has outscored Denver’s in three of four games, injecting energy that stifles Denver’s breakouts.
WHY THE NUGGETS WILL COVER +2:
Denver’s offense shoulders the burden in front of its home crowd. The Nuggets score over 120 points per game—far more than the 108 they allow—and their offensive rebounding limits second-chance buckets. Facing a Clippers team that thrives in tight, late-game situations, Denver must dictate pace early, forcing Los Angeles out of comfort. Jokić will again draw heavy attention, opening driving lanes for Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., while the crowd’s energy will rattle the Clippers, who are just 5–7 in games decided by fewer than four points. Back the Nuggets to secure a narrow victory at home and tilt the series back in their favor.
