NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18, first in the Eastern Conference) vs. Miami Heat (37-45, 10th in the Eastern Conference)
Miami; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Cavaliers −9
BOTTOM LINE:
Cleveland leads this first-round series 3–0 and can complete the sweep in Game 4. The Cavs dismantled Miami 124–87 in the last outing, riding Jarrett Allen’s 22 points and dominant rebounding on their way to a 37-point win.
SERIES ANALYSIS:
From the tip, Cleveland has controlled the paint. Jarrett Allen’s presence has locked down Miami’s interior, limiting second-chance points and allowing the Cavs to dictate pace. Despite Bam Adebayo’s 22-point effort, the Heat have been powerless against Cleveland’s size and strength.
On the perimeter, Donovan Mitchell has exploited matchup advantages, averaging 24 points and five assists. Tyler Herro has struggled under the Cavs’ length, his three-point attempts contested at every turn, which has dragged Miami’s efficiency below its season average.
Cleveland’s bench production has been a decisive factor. Caris LeVert and Max Strus have combined for 28 points off the pine, while the Heat’s reserves have offered little resistance. Injuries to Terry Rozier and Kevin Love leave Miami with thinner rotations and fewer scoring threats.
Turnovers have buried the Heat; Miami ranks 3–11 in one-possession games this season, and Cleveland has forced 15 miscues per game. The Cavs’ transition game thrives on those turnovers, turning defense into easy offense and inflating their double-digit leads.
WHY THE CAVS WILL COVER −9:
Cleveland’s rebounding edge and ball movement remain elite. The Heat simply lack the firepower and depth to sustain a comeback. Expect the Cavaliers to close out the series emphatically, covering the spread as they march confidently into Round 2.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors (48-34, seventh in the Western Conference) vs. Houston Rockets (52-30, second in the Western Conference)
San Francisco; Monday, 10 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Warriors −4
BOTTOM LINE:
Golden State holds a 2–1 edge in this first-round series and returns home after a tense 106–96 loss in Game 3. Dillon Brooks paced Houston with 24 points, but Stephen Curry’s 30-foot dagger in Game 2 remains emblematic of the Warriors’ playoff firepower. Now, with home-court advantage, Golden State can seize control.
SERIES ANALYSIS:
Through three games, defense has defined this matchup. The Rockets’ size and paint dominance—anchored by Alperen Sengun’s 19 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3—have troubled Golden State inside. Yet the Warriors have countered by living and dying from beyond the arc. They lead the NBA in makes per game (15.4), stretching Houston’s floor defense and opening driving lanes for Curry and Jordan Poole.
Adjustments have swung momentum. In Game 3, Draymond Green’s switching on pick-and-rolls couldn’t contain Garrison Mathews, and Golden State’s bench barely contributed. Expect a different look Monday: tighter close-outs on Houston’s shooters and more aggressive rebounding to limit second-chance points.
WHY THE WARRIORS WILL COVER −4:
San Francisco’s experience under pressure gives it a decisive edge. They have outscored opponents by 6 points per game in home wins this season and force turnovers—averaging 10 per contest—to fuel transition buckets. With Curry’s range and Klay Thompson’s return imminent, Golden State should reclaim its offensive rhythm and cruise to a win that covers the spread.
