NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Miami, Saturday, 1 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Cavaliers –5.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Eastern Conference’s top seed, Cleveland, visits Miami up 2–0 in this first-round series. After a 121–100 win in Game 2, the Cavs aim to extend their unbeaten run and cover the 5.5-point spread.
CONFERENCE RECORDS:
- Cavaliers: 41–11 vs. East foes; fifth in the conference with 51.3 PPG in the paint (Evan Mobley 11.6 RPG).
- Heat: 24–28 vs. conference; seventh in the NBA defensively, allowing just 110.0 PPG and holding opponents to 46.6% shooting.
SCORING & DEFENSE:
- Cleveland averages 121.9 PPG, outpacing Miami’s 110.0 PPG allowed.
- The Heat make 13.7 3PM per game, only 0.2 more than the Cavs concede (13.5).
- Cavs’ efficiency inside forces Miami into perimeter shots, where they’ve struggled in this series.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Heat: Bam Adebayo – 18.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 4.3 APG; Tyler Herro – 21.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG (last 10).
- Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell – 24.0 PPG, 5.0 APG; Darius Garland – 16.6 PPG, 5.9 APG (last 10).
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Heat (4–6): 117.8 PPG, 46.2 RPG, 27.3 APG, 49.0% FG; opponents 111.7 PPG.
- Cavaliers (7–3): 119.3 PPG, 45.7 RPG, 26.6 APG, 48.2% FG; opponents 112.7 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Heat: Dru Smith (Achilles), Terry Rozier (ankle, DTD), Kevin Love (personal, DTD).
- Cavaliers: None listed.
WHY COVER –5.5:
Cleveland’s high-octane offense and dominant rebounding overwhelm Miami’s stout defense. With a 2–0 series lead and home-court confidence, the Cavs should cruise past the 5.5-point mark, exploiting mismatches and keeping the Heat on their heels all afternoon.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis, Tennessee; Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Thunder –15.5
BOTTOM LINE:
Oklahoma City can finish off its sweep when it visits Memphis for Game 4. After a 125–112 win in Game 3—led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32 points—the Thunder look poised to close out the series.
CONFERENCE RECORDS:
- Thunder: 39–13 vs. Western foes, third in the conference in turnovers (11.0 per game) and 55–12 when committing fewer turnovers than their opponent.
- Grizzlies: 27–24 vs. conference, eighth in the NBA with 28.4 assists per game (Desmond Bane 5.3 APG).
SCORING & DEFENSE:
- Memphis scores 121.7 PPG, 14.1 more than OKC allows (107.6).
- OKC averages 14.5 made 3-pointers per game, 0.3 more than Memphis concedes.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Grizzlies: Desmond Bane – 19.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.3 APG; Ja Morant – 20.6 PPG (last 10).
- Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, 1.7 SPG; Isaiah Joe – 2.2 3PM (last 10).
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Grizzlies (4–6): 112.1 PPG, 46.1 RPG, 22.9 APG, 44.9% FG; opponents 116.3 PPG.
- Thunder (8–2): 121.3 PPG, 45.4 RPG, 25.7 APG, 47.5% FG; opponents 108.4 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Grizzlies: Ja Morant (hip, DTD), Jaylen Wells (wrist), Brandon Clarke (knee).
- Thunder: Ousmane Dieng (calf, DTD), Nikola Topic (ACL).
WHY COVER –15.5:
The Thunder’s overwhelming offense and tight turnovers discipline have dismantled Memphis so far. With home-court energy, superior rebound support and the Grizzlies shorthanded, OKC should easily surpass a 15.5-point margin.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Inglewood, California; Saturday, 6 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Nuggets +7
BOTTOM LINE:
The Denver Nuggets visit the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 4 of the Western Conference first round. L.A. leads the series 2–1 following a 126–122 win, fueled by James Harden’s 39 points.
CONFERENCE RECORDS:
- Clippers: 29–23 vs. conference foes, fourth in the West in paint scoring (51.3 PPG).
- Nuggets: 32–20 vs. conference, average 120.8 PPG and outscore opponents by 3.9 PPG.
SCORING & DEFENSE:
- L.A. scores 112.9 PPG, 4.0 fewer than Denver allows (116.9).
- Denver scores 120.8 PPG, 12.6 more than the 108.2 PPG L.A. concedes.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Clippers: Ivica Zubac – 16.8 PPG, 12.6 RPG; James Harden – 25.1 PPG (last 10).
- Nuggets: Nikola Jokic – 29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG; Aaron Gordon – 17.6 PPG (last 10).
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Clippers (9–1): 117.6 PPG on 51.7% FG; opponents 104.3 PPG.
- Nuggets (4–6): 113.3 PPG on 48.1% FG; opponents 116.4 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Clippers: None listed.
- Nuggets: DaRon Holmes II (Achilles, out), Russell Westbrook (foot, DTD).
WHY COVER +7:
Denver thrives on Jokic’s versatile star power and pushes a fast pace, even on the road. Their bench provides key scoring and rebounding support, and they force turnovers to spark transition baskets. With an offense averaging over 120 points per game, the Nuggets should stay within seven and cover the spread in Game 4.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets (52-30) vs. Golden State Warriors (48-34)
San Francisco; Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Warriors –3
BOTTOM LINE:
With the series tied 1–1, the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets in Game 3 of the West first round. Houston evened the series with a 106–96 victory in Game 2, paced by Dillon Brooks’ 24 points.
CONFERENCE PLAY:
- Warriors: 29–23 vs. West, scoring 113.8 PPG on 45.1% shooting.
- Rockets: 31–21 vs. West, allowing just 109.8 PPG on 45.9% opponent shooting.
OFFENSE & DEFENSE:
- GSW shoots 45.1%, just 0.8% below Houston’s concession rate.
- HOU shoots 45.5%, 1.0% below what Golden State allows (46.5%).
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Warriors: Stephen Curry – 24.5 PPG, 6.0 APG; Klay Thompson – 3.4 3PM (last 10).
- Rockets: Jalen Green – 21.0 PPG, 3.4 APG; Alperen Şengün – 15.2 PPG (last 10).
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Warriors (6–4): 112.6 PPG, 41.8 RPG, 27.1 APG, 11.1 SPG; opponents 106.4 PPG.
- Rockets (5–5): 115.1 PPG, 47.3 RPG, 26.1 APG, 8.4 SPG; opponents 111.4 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Warriors: Andrew Wiggins (ankle, DTD).
- Rockets: Jae’Sean Tate (ankle, DTD), Jock Landale (knee, DTD).
WHY THE WARRIORS WILL COVER –3:
Golden State’s veteran shooters excel at home and its defense thrives in late-game situations, forcing Houston into tough, contested shots. The Warriors control tempo, hit timely 3s, and protect the ball, making it likely they’ll win by at least three points and cover the spread.
