NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Indianapolis; Tuesday, 7 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Pacers –4
BOTTOM LINE:
The Pacers stunned Milwaukee in Game 1 on the road and now return home looking to build momentum. Indiana’s crisp passing and interior defense clash with the Bucks’ star power, setting up a high‑pace rematch in Indy.
TEAM STATS:
- Pacers: 50‑32 overall; 29‑22 vs. East; 29.2 assists per game (3rd in NBA)
- Bucks: 48‑34 overall; 31‑21 vs. East; 14.2 3‑pointers made per game (1st in NBA)
SCORING & SHOOTING:
- Indiana averages 113.8 points per game; allows opponents 12.9 made 3‑pointers
- Milwaukee scores 115.1 points per game; gives up 13.9 made 3‑pointers
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Tyrese Haliburton (IND): 18.6 PPG, 9.2 APG
- Myles Turner (IND): 13.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG (49.4% last 10 games)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): 30.4 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 6.5 APG
- A.J. Green (MIL): 2.2 3PM last 10 games
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Pacers: 8‑2, 118.2 PPG on 46.5% FG; opponents 113.3 PPG
- Bucks: 8‑2, 122.4 PPG on 51.6% FG; opponents 118.6 PPG
INJURIES:
- Pacers: Isaiah Jackson out (calf)
- Bucks: Tyler Smith day‑to‑day (ankle), Damian Lillard day‑to‑day (calf)
WHY THE PACERS WILL COVER –4:
Back at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indiana’s ball‑movement and assist rate will force open looks. Haliburton’s playmaking, combined with Turner’s rim protection, will neutralize Giannis and slow Milwaukee’s transition game. The Bucks struggle in tight contests (5‑9 in games decided by fewer than four points), while the Pacers thrive in front of their home crowd. With Indiana’s depth, defensive rebounding and three‑point shooting clicking early, the Pacers should win by at least four.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City; Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Thunder –14.5
BOTTOM LINE:
After a dominant Game 1 blowout, the Thunder host the Grizzlies looking to close out this first‑round series. Oklahoma City’s balanced offense and stingy defense proved overwhelming on the road, and they return home with confidence.
TEAM STATS:
- Thunder: 68‑14 overall; 39‑13 vs. West; 34.2 defensive rebounds per game (3rd in West)
- Grizzlies: 48‑34 overall; 27‑24 vs. West; 9‑6 in one‑possession games
SCORING & SHOOTING:
- OKC shoots 48.2% from the field, 2.6 points higher than opponents’ 45.6% allowed
- MEM scores 121.7 PPG, 14.1 points more than the 107.6 they allow
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander (OKC): 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, 1.7 SPG
- Jalen Williams (OKC): 19.2 PPG, 3.4 APG (last 10 games)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM): 22.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG
- Desmond Bane (MEM): 2.8 3PM (last 10 games)
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Thunder: 8‑2, 125.8 PPG on 49.1% FG; opponents 110.5 PPG
- Grizzlies: 4‑6, 114.4 PPG on 46.0% FG; opponents 118.2 PPG
INJURIES:
- Thunder: Ousmane Dieng day‑to‑day (calf), Nikola Topic out (ACL)
- Grizzlies: GG Jackson II day‑to‑day (personal), Jaylen Wells out (wrist), Brandon Clarke out (knee)
WHY THE THUNDER WILL COVER –14.5:
Back at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City’s defense will clog the paint and secure boards, limiting Memphis’s second‑chance points. With Shai and Jalen firing on all cylinders and deep role players stepping up, the Thunder’s home‑court dominance should produce another double‑digit win.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles; Tuesday, 10 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Timberwolves +5.5
BOTTOM LINE:
With a surprise road win in Game 1, Minnesota visits the Lakers aiming to capitalize on momentum. The Wolves’ balanced attack and confident shooting threaten L.A.’s home‑court edge.
TEAM NOTES:
- Lakers: 36‑16 vs. West; average 48.0 paint points per game (led by Luka Doncic).
- Timberwolves: 33‑19 vs. West; rank 5th in 3‑pointers (15.0 per game at 37.7%).
SCORING & SHOOTING:
- LAL: 13.3 3PM per game, allowing 12.7.
- MIN: 15.0 3PM per game, allowing 13.6.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Lakers: Austin Reaves 20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG; Doncic 27.7 PPG (last 10).
- Timberwolves: Julius Randle 18.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG; Anthony Edwards 4.5 3PM (last 10).
LAST 10 GAMES:
- LAL: 6‑4, 115.2 PPG on 47.5% FG; opponents 112.3 PPG.
- MIN: 9‑1, 120.0 PPG on 49.9% FG; opponents 107.7 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Lakers: Maxi Kleber out (foot).
- Timberwolves: Rob Dillingham day‑to‑day (ankle).
WHY THE TIMBERWOLVES WILL COVER +5.5:
Minneapolis’ hot shooting and unselfish offense force the Lakers’ defense to scramble. With Anthony Edwards leading and Minnesota’s depth clicking, the Wolves will stay within six, making the underdog cover.
