NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City; Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Thunder –13.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The top‑seeded Thunder open their playoff run at home against the eighth‑seeded Grizzlies. Oklahoma City dominated the regular season, going 68–14 overall and 39–13 against the West. Their size and depth should overwhelm Memphis, which squeaked in at 48–34 and struggled late, going just 4–6 in its final ten games.
TEAM INSIGHTS:
- Thunder: Ranked first in the NBA in net rating (+13.1) and third in the West in defensive rebounds (34.2 per game). Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander and Jalen Williams lead a versatile attack that averages 120.6 points.
- Grizzlies: Finished fourth in the league in defensive rebounds (34.4 per game) but rely heavily on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Their 121.7 PPG is offset by giving up 107.6 points.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander (OKC): 32.6 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.0 RPG
- Jalen Williams (OKC): 21.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG
- Ja Morant (MEM): 27.2 PPG, 6.1 APG, 4.4 RPG
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM): 22.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Thunder: 8‑2, 125.2 PPG on 48.9% shooting; opponents 112.9 PPG
- Grizzlies: 4‑6, 116.8 PPG on 46.8% shooting; opponents 117.6 PPG
INJURIES:
- Thunder: Ousmane Dieng day‑to‑day (calf), Nikola Topic out (ACL)
- Grizzlies: GG Jackson II out (personal), Jaylen Wells out (wrist), Brandon Clarke out (knee)
WHY THE THUNDER WILL COVER –13.5:
Oklahoma City’s balanced offense, elite rebounding and home‑court edge make them overwhelming favorites. Their relentless transition game and stifling defense should allow the Thunder to pull away early and cruise past the large spread.
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
TD Garden, Boston; Sunday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Celtics -13.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The second‑seeded Celtics open at home against the seventh‑seeded Magic. Boston (61‑21) dominated the East, while Orlando (41‑41) just snuck in. Expect the experienced Celtics to overwhelm a young Magic squad.
TEAM STATS:
- Celtics: 39‑13 vs. East, average 116.3 PPG on 46.2% shooting
- Magic: 31‑21 vs. East, average 109.8 PPG on 46.5% shooting
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Jayson Tatum (BOS): 26.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 6.0 APG
- Jaylen Brown (BOS): 24.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.3 APG
- Paolo Banchero (ORL): 20.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.9 APG
- Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL): 12.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Celtics: 8‑2, 113.8 PPG, 49.2 RPG, 46.1% FG; opponents 102.6 PPG
- Magic: 7‑3, 108.5 PPG, 43.3 RPG, 46.5% FG; opponents 101.4 PPG
INJURIES:
- Celtics: Al Horford day‑to‑day (knee), Jaylen Brown day‑to‑day (knee), Jrue Holiday day‑to‑day (shoulder)
- Magic: Jalen Suggs out (quad), Moritz Wagner out (knee)
WHY THE CELTICS WILL COVER:
Boston’s consistent depth, defense, relentless athleticism, physicality and playoff experience make them overwhelming favorites. The Celtics rank top‑five in defensive rating and rebound margin, limiting opponents to just 102 points per game in their last ten. Orlando’s rotation lacks veteran firepower, and their rookie core will struggle to keep pace. On their home court, Boston should hit early and often from deep, control the glass and cruise past the 13.5‑point margin.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland; Sunday, 7 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Cavaliers -12.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The top‑seeded Cavaliers open at home against the No. 8 Heat. Cleveland (64‑18) dominated all season, while Miami (37‑45) squeaked into the play‑in and now faces a massive uphill battle in Game 1.
TEAM STATS:
- Cavaliers: 41‑11 vs. East; 121.9 PPG (1st in conference); 49.1% FG
- Heat: 24‑28 vs. East; 110.0 PPG allowed (3rd best); 46.6% FG allowed
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Donovan Mitchell (CLE): 24.0 PPG, 5.0 APG
- Darius Garland (CLE): 20.5 PPG, 8.3 APG
- Bam Adebayo (MIA): 18.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 4.3 APG
- Tyler Herro (MIA): 22.5 PPG, 4.1 APG
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Cavaliers: 6‑4, 119.7 PPG, 47.8 RPG, 47.6% FG (opponents 116.4 PPG)
- Heat: 6‑4, 120.6 PPG, 47.1 RPG, 49.0% FG (opponents 108.2 PPG)
INJURIES:
- Cavaliers: None listed
- Heat: Dru Smith out (Achilles), Kevin Love out (personal)
WHY THE CAVALIERS WILL COVER:
Cleveland’s high‑octane offense and 3‑point efficiency overwhelm most teams, especially at home where they’re 34‑7 this season. The Cavs rank top‑three in the league in 3‑point makes and defensive rebounding, limiting second‑chance points. Miami’s young backcourt lacks playoff depth and faces a hostile arena. Expect Cleveland’s stars to heat up early, pulling away comfortably and covering the 12.5‑point margin.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Houston; Sunday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Rockets -1
BOTTOM LINE:
The No. 2 Rockets return to the playoffs and open at home against their old rival, the No. 7 Warriors. While Golden State leans on Steph Curry’s shooting and playoff savvy, Houston blends veteran leadership with a young, athletic core—determined to end its postseason drought.
TEAM STATS:
- Rockets: 53‑29 overall, 39‑13 vs. West; 115.8 PPG (12th in NBA); allow 111.3 PPG (8th best)
- Warriors: 45‑37 overall, 28‑24 vs. West; 113.7 PPG (16th); allow 114.8 PPG (16th)
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Fred VanVleet (HOU): 19.6 PPG, 6.1 APG
- Jalen Green (HOU): 23.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG
- Stephen Curry (GSW): 26.4 PPG, 6.0 APG
- Jimmy Butler (GSW): 21.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Rockets: 7‑3, averaging 117.2 PPG, 45.0 RPG, 24.8 APG (shooting 47.9% FG)
- Warriors: 6‑4, averaging 115.1 PPG, 43.7 RPG, 28.9 APG (shooting 45.1% FG)
INJURIES:
- Rockets: None listed
- Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga: day to day (ankle)
WHY THE ROCKETS WILL COVER:
Houston racks up offensive rebounds (14.6 per game, best in NBA) and forces second‑chance points—an edge on a Warriors team that struggled on the boards late in the season. At home, the Rockets defend physically and control the paint, limiting transition looks for Curry and company. With veteran poise from VanVleet and a hungry young core, Houston’s mix of rebounding, defense and home‑court energy should push them past the 1‑point spread.
