NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets Preview
Atlanta; Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Hawks -8.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Atlanta Hawks aim to extend their three-game home win streak as they take on a struggling Charlotte Hornets team. With the Hornets posting dismal numbers in division play, the Hawks look well-positioned to cover the -8.5 spread.
The Hawks are 23-18 in Eastern Conference games and rank fifth in the league in fast-break points, averaging 16.4 per game, led by Jalen Johnson. In contrast, the Hornets are 1-11 in division matchups and have a 3-27 record in games decided by 10 or more points, highlighting their inability to keep contests close.
Defensively, the Hawks hold opponents to an average of 105.3 points per gameâsignificantly lower than the 119.7 points the Hornets allow. Offensively, Atlanta makes 13.1 three-pointers per game, almost matching the Hornetsâ 13.7, proving their balanced attack. Meanwhile, the Hornetsâ overall struggles continue to widen the gap between the two teams.
TOP PERFORMERS:
Trae Young leads the Hawks with 23.8 points and 11.5 assists, while Caris LeVert adds 15.5 points over the past 10 games. For the Hornets, LaMelo Ball averages 25.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, with Miles Bridges contributing 25.2 points and 7.8 rebounds.
RECENT FORM:
In their last 10 games, the Hawks have averaged 120.6 points, demonstrating solid offensive firepower and defensive consistency. The Hornets, however, have averaged only 100.2 points, underscoring their offensive struggles.
INJURIES:
Hawks: Larry Nance Jr. is out (knee), Kobe Bufkin is out for season (shoulder), and Trae Young is day-to-day (quadricep).
Hornets: Grant Williams and Brandon Miller are out for the season (ACL, wrist), with additional key players sidelined.
Given these factors, the Atlanta Hawks are primed to cover the -8.5 spread.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
Boston; Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Celtics -2.5
BOTTOM LINE:
Boston hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder as the Celtics look to extend their strong home record and cover the -2.5 spread. While the Thunder are riding a six-game road win streak, the Celticsâ home-court advantage makes them a tough cover at -2.5.
The Celtics are 23-11 at home and rank sixth in the league, averaging 116.9 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field. Their defense has been solid, holding opponents to just 108.2 points per game. In contrast, the Thunder are 24-7 on the road. Oklahoma City is known for its long-range shooting, averaging 14.3 made 3-pointers per game at 36.7% from deep. However, the Thunder give up an average of only 107.1 points per game, and while they score 119.7 points on average, they allow too many points on defense.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Boston, Jaylen Brown averages 23.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, while Jayson Tatum has averaged 22.3 points over the last 10 games. These performances highlight Bostonâs ability to control the game on both ends.
For Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads with 32.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.2 assists, with Aaron Wiggins adding 2.4 made 3-pointers per game over the past 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
Over their last 10 games, the Celtics have averaged 115.2 points with strong defense, while the Thunder have been scoring 128.6 points but have struggled against top defenses on the road.
INJURIES:
Boston: Tatum (day-to-day, knee), Al Horford (day-to-day, toe), Porzingis (day-to-day, illness).
Thunder: Nikola Topic is out for the season (ACL), and Ajay Mitchell is out (toe).
With their home advantage and consistent scoring, the Celtics are well-poised to cover the -2.5 spread.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors Preview
Toronto; Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: 76ers +5
BOTTOM LINE:
Philadelphia aims to end its seven-game road skid when the 76ers take on the struggling Raptors. With the 76ers favored to cover the +5 spread, theyâre expected to outperform expectations on the road.
The Raptors are 4-8 against division opponents and rank second in the Eastern Conference with 12.3 offensive rebounds per game, led by Jakob Poeltl averaging 3.4 boards. In contrast, the 76ers are 3-10 against Atlantic Division teams and are the worst rebounding unit in the Eastern Conference, averaging just 39.4 boards per game under Kelly Oubre Jr. at 6.2. Despite this, the 76ersâ overall performance has been competitive.
The Raptors make 11.5 3-pointers per game, 2.3 fewer than the 76ers allow (13.8), while the 76ers average 12.7 3-pointers per game, only slightly less than the 11.5 the Raptors allow. This balance in shooting, combined with Philadelphiaâs recent offensive spark, makes them a good bet to cover the spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Toronto, RJ Barrett is averaging 21.6 points while Immanuel Quickley contributes 18.5 points over the last 10 games. For Philadelphia, Quentin Grimes scores 12.1 points with 4.1 rebounds, and Kelly Oubre Jr. adds 15.3 points and 3.4 rebounds in recent contests.
RECENT FORM:
Over their last 10 games, the Raptors have averaged 111.7 points, while the 76ers have struggled, averaging 111.6 points with opponents hitting 122.2.
INJURIES:
The Raptors face significant injury issues with Ulrich Chomche, Brandon Ingram, and Gradey Dick all sidelined. The 76ers are missing Jared McCain, and Joel Embiid is out for the season, but key players like Oubre and Maxey remain active.
WHY THE 76ERS WILL COVER:
Despite a poor record, the 76ers have shown competitive play on the road. With the Raptorsâ injury woes and inconsistency, Philadelphiaâs offense and underrated defense should allow them to cover the +5 spread.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Miami Heat
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers Preview
Miami; Wednesday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Heat -2
BOTTOM LINE:
The Los Angeles Clippers hit the road against the Miami Heat as they look to break a four-game skid. However, the Heat are poised to cover the -2 spread thanks to their strong home court and efficient defense.
The Heat are 15-15 at home, although theyâve struggled in close contests with a 3-8 record in games decided by fewer than 4 points. In contrast, the Clippers are 13-20 on the road. Miamiâs defense is a key factorâthey hold opponents to 110.5 points per game and allow a shooting percentage of just 46.3%. Additionally, the Heat make 13.8 3-pointers per game, only slightly more than the 13.3 the Clippers give up, which shows their ability to force tough shots.
TOP PERFORMERS:
Bam Adebayo leads the Heat with averages of 17.8 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, while Tyler Herro has been a reliable scorer with 20.6 points and 5.9 assists over the last 10 games. For the Clippers, James Harden is averaging 22.3 points and 5.8 rebounds, and Bogdan Bogdanovic contributes with 3-pointers at a rate of 1.9 makes over the last 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
Over the past 10 games, the Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game, and the Clippers have struggled on the road, averaging 111.0 points while their opponents score 113.2.
INJURIES:
Key Heat players like Dru Smith (out for season with an achilles injury) and Nikola Jovic (out with a hand injury) are sidelined, while the Clippers are missing Norman Powell (hamstring) and have Ben Simmons day-to-day (knee).
With a balanced offense and solid defensive numbers, the Heat are expected to cover the -2 spread and snap their close-game struggles.
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets Preview
Houston; Wednesday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Suns +5
BOTTOM LINE:
Despite the Rocketsâ home advantage and strong rebounding numbers, the Phoenix Suns are well-positioned to cover the +5 spread. With their dynamic offense and playmaking, the Suns can keep games close and even pull off an upset.
The Rockets are 24-16 in Western Conference games and lead the conference in rebounding, averaging 48.4 boards per game. Alperen Sengun leads Houston with 10.4 rebounds, and the Rockets average 12.2 made 3-pointers per game. However, the Rockets give up good shooting as the Suns allow 14.1 3-pointers per game.
On the flip side, the Suns are 20-23 against conference opponents and rank fifth in assists, averaging 28.0 per game with Devin Booker contributing 6.8 assists. The Suns score 114.5 points per gameâ5.6 more than the Rocketsâ opponents allowâshowing that they can push the pace and keep games competitive.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Houston, Sengun is averaging 19.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, while Jalen Green adds 19.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists over the last 10 games. For Phoenix, Booker leads with 26 points and 6.8 assists, and Kevin Durant contributes with solid shooting, averaging 3.0 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
Over the last 10 games, the Rockets have averaged 113.9 points per game while the Suns have been slightly inconsistent, averaging 122.0 points per game.
INJURIES:
Houstonâs Reed Sheppard is out (thumb), Amen Thompson is day-to-day (foot), and Fred VanVleet is day-to-day (ankle). For the Suns, Bradley Beal is day-to-day (calf), Monte Morris is day-to-day (back), and Cody Martin is day-to-day (abdomen).
The Sunsâ efficient offense and strong assist game should enable them to cover the +5 spread.
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz Preview
Memphis, Tennessee; Wednesday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Grizzlies -12.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Memphis Grizzlies are set to host the Utah Jazz as the visitors look to end a 13-game road skid. With their strong home form, the Grizzlies are expected to cover the -12.5 spread.
The Grizzlies are 24-16 in conference play, averaging 122.6 points per game and outscoring their opponents by 5.8 points on average. Their efficient offense and balanced play make them a tough matchup at home. In contrast, the Jazz have struggled against Western Conference opponents, holding a 7-36 record. Despite Utahâs respectable reboundingâranking third in the West with 45.9 boards per game led by Walker Kessler (averaging 12.3 rebounds)âtheir overall play has been inconsistent.
The Grizzlies are efficient from beyond the arc, averaging 13.7 made 3-pointers per game, just slightly below the 14.8 that the Jazz allow. Utah shoots 45.8% from the field, which is similar to what the Grizzliesâ opponents achieve.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Memphis, Ja Morant is averaging 21.7 points while Desmond Bane adds 18.9 points over the last 10 games. For Utah, Walker Kessler leads with 11.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks, and Brice Sensabaugh contributes 3.0 made 3-pointers per game.
RECENT FORM:
Over the last 10 games, the Grizzlies have averaged 120.2 points per game, while the Jazz have struggled, averaging 114.2 points.
INJURIES:
Memphis is missing key players like Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) and Zach Edey (ankle), while the Jazz are without Jordan Clarkson (day-to-day) and Lauri Markkanen (back).
Given their superior home performance and balanced attack, the Grizzlies are well-positioned to cover the -12.5 spread.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Preview
San Antonio; Wednesday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Mavericks +6
BOTTOM LINE:
The San Antonio Spurs head to San Antonio as losers of three straight games. However, the Dallas Mavericks are expected to cover the +6 spread in this matchup thanks to their strong defensive numbers and consistency against tough opponents.
The Spurs have struggled in division play, posting a 3-11 record and going 6-6 in games decided by 3 points or fewer. In contrast, the Mavericks are 8-5 in division games and rank seventh in the Western Conference, allowing only 114.5 points per game while holding opponents to 46.4% shooting. Although the Spurs average 113.7 points per game, the Mavericksâ disciplined defense gives them an edge.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For San Antonio, DeâAaron Fox is averaging 23.4 points, 6.2 assists, and 1.5 steals, while Harrison Barnes contributes with 2.4 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games. On the Mavericksâ side, Kyrie Irving is putting up 24.7 points with 4.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists, and Klay Thompson adds 17.7 points and 3.5 rebounds, shooting 41.1% from beyond the arc.
RECENT FORM:
Over the last 10 games, the Spurs have averaged 116.6 points per game while their opponents have put up 125.4, highlighting their struggles. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been competitive on the road, averaging 109.7 points per game versus opponentsâ 119.9.
INJURIES:
The Spurs are dealing with major losses, including Victor Wembanyama out for the season. The Mavericks, despite missing key players like Kyrie Irving (out for season), continue to perform well as a unit.
Given the Mavericksâ defensive strength and the Spursâ current struggles, Dallas should cover the +6 spread.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
Denver; Wednesday, 10 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Nuggets -3
BOTTOM LINE:
While the Timberwolves aim to extend their three-game road win streak, the Denver Nuggets are expected to cover the -3 spread thanks to their strong performance and efficient scoring.
The Nuggets have posted a 7-5 record against division opponents, averaging 121.5 points per game and outscoring their rivals by 4.9 points on average. Their ability to control the pace and maintain a high offensive output has been key to their success. In contrast, the Timberwolves, with a 26-18 record in Western Conference play, rely heavily on their three-point shooting, ranking third in the conference at 37.9%. However, while Minnesota averages 15.2 made 3-pointers per game, they allow 14.0 per game, which is nearly even with Denverâs 12.2 made 3-pointers allowed. This indicates that the Nuggetsâ defense has been effective at limiting outside shooting.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For the Nuggets, Jamal Murray is averaging 21.5 points with 6.1 assists, while Nikola Jokic has been consistent with 24.6 points over the last 10 games. On the Timberwolvesâ side, Anthony Edwards leads with 27.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and Jaden McDaniels contributes 18.8 points and 7.7 rebounds, shooting 51.4% recently.
RECENT FORM:
Over the last 10 games, the Nuggets have averaged 121.1 points while holding opponents to 120.9, proving their offensive edge. With key players healthy and performing, Denver is well positioned to cover the -3 spread against a Timberwolves team that has struggled to contain elite offenses.
INJURIES:
For Denver, Aaron Gordon is day to day with a calf issue, DaRon Holmes II is out for the season (achilles), and Julian Strawther is out (knee). The Timberwolves report no significant injuries.
Given their overall efficiency and defensive strength, the Nuggets should cover the spread in this matchup.
New York Knicks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
New York Knicks vs. Portland Trail Blazers Preview
Portland, Oregon; Wednesday, 10 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Knicks -4
BOTTOM LINE:
New York comes into this matchup as losers of three straight games, but the Knicks are poised to cover the -4 spread against the Trail Blazers. Despite Portlandâs solid home record, the Knicksâ efficiency on the road should help them bounce back.
The Trail Blazers have gone 16-15 in home games and give up 114.7 points per game, being outscored by 4.1 points on average. They are shooting 45.2% from the field this season, which is 2.1 percentage points lower than the 47.3% that the Knicks allow to opponents. On the road, the Knicks are 19-12 and rank fifth in the NBA, scoring 53.1 points per game in the paint. This strong interior performance, led by Karl-Anthony Towns averaging 12.6 rebounds, should help the Knicks control the game.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Portland, Deni Avdija is shooting 46.7% and averaging 15.1 points, while Anfernee Simons has been scoring 25.4 points over the last 10 games. On the Knicksâ side, Josh Hart is contributing 14.5 points per game with 9.8 rebounds, and OG Anunoby has been making his mark from beyond with 2.2 made 3-pointers in the last 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES:
The Trail Blazers have been averaging 119.2 points per game with balanced rebounding, assists, steals, and blocks, while the Knicks have averaged 111.8 points per game on the road. With better defensive efficiency and key performers returning, the Knicks are expected to cover the -4 spread.
INJURIES:
Portland is without Deandre Ayton, Matisse Thybulle, Jerami Grant, and Robert Williams III, while the Knicks are missing Ariel Hukporti and Jalen Brunson.
